What is FLUT's forecasted revenue?

Flutter Entertainment Plc is forecasted to generate $40.2B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +134.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FLUT revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $5.8B versus the actual $4.3B.

Flutter Entertainment Plc FLUT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Flutter Entertainment Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $4.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $40.2B across the next four quarters (+134.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 34.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$40.2B

+134.2% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-100087.49 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$7174.12 per $1

Training Fit

1.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.82B vs the actual $4.33B — an error of 34.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($4.3B) came in 35% below the spending-based forecast ($5.8B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$5.82B	$4.33B	$5.74B–$5.91B	+39.1%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$5.24B		$5.12B–$5.36B	+38.2%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$8.54B		$8.38B–$8.69B	+80.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$9.26B		$9.09B–$9.44B	+115.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$17.15B		$16.95B–$17.34B	+296.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Flutter Entertainment Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0017	+0.2%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0047	+0.5%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9848	-1.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9938	-0.6%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1757x • R&D elasticity: -0.1962x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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