Ftai Aviation Ltd. FTAI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Ftai Aviation Ltd. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.6B, a +41.7% year-over-year change, based on 48 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 13.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 13.6% MAPE, the model captures Ftai Aviation Ltd.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.
Next FY Revenue
$3.55B
+41.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-1.04x
Model Accuracy
13.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.7B vs the actual $0.7B — an error of 8.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Ftai Aviation Ltd. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.7B | $0.7B | $0.5B – $1.0B | +43.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.8B | $0.5B – $1.3B | +54.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $0.8B | $0.4B – $1.6B | +24.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $0.9B | $0.4B – $1.9B | +38.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.0B | $0.4B – $2.3B | +52.8% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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