What is FTI's forecasted revenue?

Technipfmc Plc is forecasted to generate $9.32B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -10.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FTI revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.7B versus the actual $2.8B.

Technipfmc Plc FTI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Technipfmc Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $2.8B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.3B across the next four quarters (-10.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$9.32B

-10.5% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-13.72x

SG&A Elasticity

-10.47x

Training Fit

1.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.74B vs the actual $2.76B — an error of 0.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.74B	$2.76B	$2.61B–$2.88B	+8.1%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.69B		$2.51B–$2.89B	+1.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.30B		$2.11B–$2.50B	-8.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.13B		$1.93B–$2.35B	-14.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.21B		$1.97B–$2.47B	-20.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Technipfmc Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.988	-1.2%	In line with trend	6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0002	+0.0%	In line with trend	5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9999	-0.0%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0044	+0.4%	In line with trend	5

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2604x • R&D elasticity: -0.1029x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch