What is GD's forecasted revenue?

General Dynamics Corporation is forecasted to generate $57.7B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +7.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the GD revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $14B versus the actual $13B.

General Dynamics Corporation GD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-04-05

General Dynamics Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $13.5B for the period ending 2026-04-05. The model projects $57.7B across the next four quarters (+7.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-04-05. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$57.7B

+7.3% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.36x

Training Fit

3.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $13.52B vs the actual $13.48B — an error of 0.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: General Dynamics Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-04-05	$13.52B	$13.48B	$12.25B–$14.93B	+10.6%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-05	$14.29B		$12.42B–$16.43B	+9.5%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-10-05	$13.91B		$11.73B–$16.51B	+7.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2027-01-05	$15.00B		$12.31B–$18.28B	+4.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-05	$14.53B		$11.65B–$18.12B	+7.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture General Dynamics Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9681	-3.2%	-3.2% below trend	16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.996	-0.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0054	+0.5%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0299	+3.0%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.9335x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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