Alphabet Inc. GOOGL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Alphabet Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $120B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $528B across the next four quarters (+18.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$527.9B
+18.4% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$4.46 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$9.58 per $1
Training Fit
2.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $110.44B vs the actual $119.80B — an error of 7.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

GOOGL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $110.44B $119.80B $107.07B–$113.82B +14.5% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $119.71B $114.93B–$124.48B +17.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $137.54B $131.70B–$143.39B +20.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $134.34B $127.59B–$141.09B +22.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $136.30B $128.76B–$143.85B +13.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Alphabet Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9997 -0.0% In line with trend 11
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0043 +0.4% In line with trend 10
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9933 -0.7% In line with trend 11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9959 -0.4% In line with trend 11

Spending and Revenue

GOOGL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 48 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3087x • R&D elasticity: -0.1248x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 48 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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