What is GS's forecasted revenue?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc is forecasted to generate $14.6B in FY revenue, representing +7.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the GS revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 13.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.7B versus the actual $3.7B.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 55 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue growth appears driven by SG&A efficiency, with an elasticity of 2.47: a 1% increase in SG&A corresponds to a 2.47% rise in revenue, signaling strong ROI from selling, marketing, and related spending. The latest quarterly revenue was about $3.708B, and a holdout forecast matched closely at $3.7B with a about 0.9% error, supporting near-term forecast reliability. The full-year outlook calls for roughly $15B in revenue, up about 7.3% year over year, indicating solid growth supported by effective SG&A leverage and ongoing client activity. Note that the model reports a 13.8% MAPE, signaling some uncertainty in the elasticity estimates and forecast, which investors should factor into planning.

Investment Thesis

At 13.8% MAPE, the model captures Goldman Sachs Group Inc's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 2.47x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$14.6B

+7.3% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

2.47x

Model Accuracy

13.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.7B vs the actual $3.7B — an error of 0.9%.

Note: Goldman Sachs Group Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3.7B	$3.7B	$2.7B – $5.3B	+59.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$3.7B		$2.3B – $5.9B	+26.5%
Q3 2026	$3.6B		$2.0B – $6.6B	+17.2%
Q4 2026	$3.6B		$1.8B – $7.2B	-6.1%
Q1 2027	$3.6B		$1.7B – $7.8B	-2.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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