What is HAL's forecasted revenue?

Halliburton Company is forecasted to generate $21.5B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -4.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HAL revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $5.3B versus the actual $5.7B.

Halliburton Company HAL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Halliburton Company's latest quarterly revenue is $5.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $21.5B across the next four quarters (-4.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$21.5B

-4.0% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.41x

Training Fit

4.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.34B vs the actual $5.71B — an error of 6.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Halliburton Company does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$5.34B	$5.71B	$4.69B–$6.09B	-3.0%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$5.35B		$4.44B–$6.44B	-4.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$5.35B		$4.27B–$6.72B	-5.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$5.38B		$4.14B–$6.99B	-0.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$5.39B		$4.02B–$7.23B	-5.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Halliburton Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9687	-3.1%	-3.1% below trend	17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0232	+2.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0046	+0.5%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0165	+1.6%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.7961x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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