What is HCA's forecasted revenue?

Hca Healthcare, Inc. is forecasted to generate $81.5B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +6.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HCA revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $20B versus the actual $19B.

Hca Healthcare, Inc. HCA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Hca Healthcare, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $19.1B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $81.5B across the next four quarters (+6.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$81.5B

+6.7% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$60.15 per $1

Training Fit

2.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $19.61B vs the actual $19.11B — an error of 2.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Hca Healthcare, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-03-31	$19.61B	$19.11B	$17.84B–$21.55B	+7.0%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$19.91B		$18.04B–$21.98B	+7.0%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$20.22B		$18.18B–$22.49B	+5.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$20.52B		$18.24B–$23.09B	+5.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$20.83B		$18.31B–$23.69B	+9.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hca Healthcare, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0061	+0.6%	In line with trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9993	-0.1%	In line with trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.981	-1.9%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0244	+2.4%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.002x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 2.6%.

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