What is HEI's forecasted revenue?

Heico Corporation is forecasted to generate $5.65B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +9.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HEI revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.2% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.3B versus the actual $1.4B.

Heico Corporation HEI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Heico Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.4B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $5.7B across the next four quarters (+9.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$5.65B

+9.2% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.03x

Training Fit

3.2% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $1.32B vs the actual $1.41B — an error of 6.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Heico Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-31	$1.32B	$1.41B	$1.22B–$1.44B	+15.4%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-10-31	$1.37B		$1.22B–$1.55B	+13.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-31	$1.36B		$1.17B–$1.57B	+15.2%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-30	$1.43B		$1.21B–$1.70B	+4.3%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-07-31	$1.49B		$1.23B–$1.80B	+5.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Heico Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan)	0.9614	-3.9%	-3.9% below trend	17
FQ2 (Feb–Apr)	1.0184	+1.8%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (May–Jul)	0.9987	-0.1%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Aug–Oct)	1.0217	+2.2%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.846x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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