What is HII's forecasted revenue?

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. is forecasted to generate $13.3B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +0.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HII revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.2B versus the actual $3.4B.

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. HII

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $13.3B across the next four quarters (+0.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$13.3B

+0.9% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.13x

Training Fit

3.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.19B vs the actual $3.42B — an error of 6.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.19B	$3.42B	$2.92B–$3.50B	+3.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.25B		$2.86B–$3.69B	+1.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.43B		$2.93B–$4.01B	-1.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.33B		$2.78B–$3.99B	+7.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.31B		$2.70B–$4.05B	-3.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.987	-1.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9967	-0.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0017	+0.2%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0116	+1.2%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.3687x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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