What is HLT's forecasted revenue?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is forecasted to generate $11.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -11.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HLT revenue forecast model?

The model has 12.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.0B versus the actual $3.3B.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $11.1B across the next four quarters (-11.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$11.1B

-11.0% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$85.15 per $1

Training Fit

12.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.04B vs the actual $3.34B — an error of 8.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.04B	$3.34B	$2.60B–$3.48B	-3.0%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.88B		$2.26B–$3.51B	-7.6%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.69B		$1.93B–$3.45B	-12.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.77B		$1.88B–$3.65B	-5.8%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.78B		$1.79B–$3.77B	-16.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9244	-7.6%	-7.6% below trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0921	+9.2%	+9.2% above trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0268	+2.7%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9652	-3.5%	-3.5% below trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 1.577x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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