Hinge Health, Inc.: Bayesian forecast status
Latest verified revenue: $234.97M for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Reported source.
Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. Sources were refreshed for this model run on 2026-11-04; the cutoff above identifies the latest verified revenue observation used for this model review. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.
No Bayesian interval or simulated path is presented for this vintage. The earlier report below remains available for context; its ranges are not Bayesian prediction intervals.
Management guidance versus reported revenue
Earliest located quarterly guidance among sampled SEC earnings releases; earlier/revised guidance and call-only statements may be missing. Annual and segment-only outlooks excluded.
Management ranges are stated targets, not probability intervals. The revenue model is fitted independently; verified guidance is superimposed for comparison. Historical bias uses the earliest located guidance for each quarter: (guidance midpoint − actual revenue) / actual revenue. Positive values mean guidance above actual results; negative values mean guidance below actual results. This describes outcomes, not management intent.
3 matched quarters · mean guidance bias -6.23% · mean absolute error 6.23%. Actual revenue fell inside 0.0% of 3 published ranges.
This is a descriptive sample, not evidence of a permanent management bias or a calibrated probability range. Call-only guidance and earlier revisions may be missing; guidance and results can reflect different business assumptions.
Guidance vintages and actual results
| Issued / filed | Target quarter | Management guidance | Actual revenue | Bias | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-31 | $171.00M–$173.00M | $182.31M | -5.65% | Company release |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-06-30 | $194.00M–$196.00M | $212.82M | -8.37% | Company release |
| 2026-08-04 | 2026-09-30 | $223.00M–$225.00M | $234.97M | -4.67% | Company release |
All located quarterly guidance announcements
Each announcement retains its original date and amounts. Later revisions remain separate; only the earliest located announcement for each target enters the bias average. An initial forecast may predate this research sample.
| Issued / filed | Target quarter | Guidance | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-31 | $171.00M–$173.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-06-30 | $194.00M–$196.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-08-04 | 2026-09-30 | $223.00M–$225.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-11-02 | 2026-12-31 | $249.00M–$251.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
Preserved Bayesian forecast vintage
Computed 2026-11-04 using revenue through 2026-06-30. These original numbers are retained unchanged to allow subsequent scoring; they were not refitted with the new results. Forecasts computed after a target quarter ended are retrospective estimates, not pre-release predictions.
The prior Bayesian forecast was withheld: Only 9 consecutive positive revenue quarters are available; this rollout requires at least 20.
The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.
Hinge Health, Inc. HNGE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 9 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30
Earlier summary (2026-10-14): Hinge Health, Inc. has SEC quarterly revenue data through 2026-06-30. Current, continuous revenue and comparable expense data are insufficient for a spending-based forecast.
Quarterly Revenue History
| Quarter Ending | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $89.8M |
| 2024-09-30 | $100.6M |
| 2024-12-31 | $117.3M |
| 2025-03-31 | $123.8M |
| 2025-06-30 | $139.1M |
| 2025-09-30 | $154.2M |
| 2025-12-31 | $170.7M |
| 2026-03-31 | $182.3M |
| 2026-06-30 | $212.8M |
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