Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.1B across the next four quarters (-36.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 19.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$3.11B
-36.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-3.24x
Training Fit
10.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.05B vs the actual $1.31B — an error of 19.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Robinhood Markets, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.3B) came in 20% above the spending-based forecast ($1.0B). This suggests that Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

HOOD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.05B $1.31B $821.9M–$1.34B +6.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $968.6M $685.5M–$1.37B -24.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $820.9M $537.5M–$1.25B -36.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $709.5M $435.2M–$1.16B -33.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $610.9M $353.7M–$1.06B -53.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9736 -2.6% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9852 -1.5% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9855 -1.5% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.959 -4.1% -4.1% below trend 5

Spending and Revenue

HOOD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 25 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.68x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 25 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.