What is ILMN's forecasted revenue?

Illumina, Inc. is forecasted to generate $4.06B in FY revenue, representing -6.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ILMN revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.2% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.1B versus the actual $1.2B.

Illumina, Inc. ILMN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

The model shows SG&A spending has a positive long-run revenue impact (0.62 per $1) while R&D spending has a negative long-run impact (-0.89 per $1), suggesting revenue growth is more sensitive to SG&A efficiency and strategy than to R&D intensity. With 57 quarters of data, the linear model achieves a 5.2% MAPE, but the holdout test shows a 7.6% error (predicted $1.10B vs actual $1.20B) indicating modest precision. The latest quarterly revenue is $1.159B, and the FY forecast is $4.1B, down 6.5% year over year, signaling a softer near-term environment. Outlook: aligning spend toward SG&A-driven growth while moderating R&D could improve the revenue trajectory, though the full-year view remains modest with subdued growth expected.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.2% MAPE), suggesting Illumina, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.62 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$4.06B

-6.5% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-0.89 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$0.62 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.2B — an error of 7.6%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.0B – $1.2B	-3.0%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$1.0B		$0.9B – $1.2B	-0.5%
Q2 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.2B	-4.6%
Q3 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.2B	-6.7%
Q4 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.2B	-13.5%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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