What is ILMN's forecasted revenue?

Illumina, Inc. is forecasted to generate $4.64B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ILMN revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.1B versus the actual $1.2B.

Illumina, Inc. ILMN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Illumina, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.2B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $4.6B across the next four quarters (+3.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.64B

+3.3% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-3.09 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$0.98 per $1

Training Fit

4.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $1.07B vs the actual $1.16B — an error of 7.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-06-28	$1.07B	$1.16B	$983.8M–$1.16B	+1.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-28	$1.08B		$958.6M–$1.21B	-0.1%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-28	$1.16B		$1.01B–$1.31B	-0.1%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-03-28	$1.19B		$1.02B–$1.37B	+9.3%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-06-28	$1.21B		$1.01B–$1.40B	+4.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Illumina, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	0.9724	-2.8%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (May–Jul)	1.0075	+0.7%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	1.0136	+1.4%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	1.0149	+1.5%	In line with trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.144x • R&D elasticity: 0.2322x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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