Samsara Inc. IOT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 19 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by R&D investments, which the model attributes to a long-run revenue of $50.67 per $1 spent, while SG&A spending weighs negatively, contributing $-17.27 per $1 in long-run revenue. The model is backed by 19 quarters of data and shows strong validation, with 1.0% MAPE accuracy and a holdout error of 1.2% (predicted $411M vs actual $416M). Samsara posted $416M in revenue in the latest quarter. The full-year forecast is about $1.93B in revenue, up 27% year over year, signaling a healthy growth trajectory if the R&D-driven expansion remains efficient and SG&A stays controlled.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Samsara Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.0% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $50.67 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation.

Next FY Revenue
$1.93B
+27.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$50.67 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-17.27 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $411B vs the actual $416B — an error of 1.2%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

IOT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $411B $416B $404B – $418B +27.7% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $441B $431B – $451B +27.4%
Q2 2026 $466B $454B – $479B +27.1%
Q3 2026 $495B $481B – $509B +26.5%
Q4 2026 $529B $513B – $544B +27.1%

How Spending Drives Revenue

IOT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 19 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.