What is IOT's forecasted revenue?

Samsara Inc. is forecasted to generate $2.42B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +30.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the IOT revenue forecast model?

The model has 0.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.5B versus the actual $0.5B.

Samsara Inc. IOT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 22 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Samsara Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $508M for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $2.4B across the next four quarters (+30.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.42B

+30.8% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$15.73 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$1.45 per $1

Training Fit

0.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $510.5M vs the actual $508.4M — an error of 0.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$510.5M	$508.4M	$506.8M–$514.3M	+30.4%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$538.2M		$532.8M–$543.5M	+29.4%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$581.1M		$574.6M–$587.6M	+30.8%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-05-01	$630.8M		$623.3M–$638.4M	+31.7%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$665.7M		$657.3M–$674.1M	+30.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Samsara Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	1.0017	+0.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (May–Jul)	0.999	-0.1%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	1.0001	+0.0%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	1.0004	+0.0%	In line with trend	4

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 22 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.373x • R&D elasticity: 0.3535x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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