What is JBHT's forecasted revenue?

J.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. is forecasted to generate $12.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -4.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the JBHT revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.1B versus the actual $3.5B.

J.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

J.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.1B across the next four quarters (-4.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.1B

-4.5% YoY

G&A Elasticity

-0.31x

Training Fit

4.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.09B vs the actual $3.50B — an error of 11.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: J.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.09B	$3.50B	$2.77B–$3.44B	+5.4%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.04B		$2.61B–$3.54B	-0.3%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.02B		$2.50B–$3.64B	-2.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.01B		$2.43B–$3.74B	-1.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.06B		$2.40B–$3.89B	-12.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture J.b. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9509	-4.9%	-4.9% below trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0055	+0.6%	In line with trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0114	+1.1%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0159	+1.6%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.171x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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