Kraft Heinz Co KHC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Latest quarterly revenue is about $6.35 billion, with a full-year forecast of roughly $25.0 billion, representing a -1.0% year-over-year change. Revenue appears to be driven by core product sales, but SG&A spending shows a negative long-run ROI, with each $1 of SG&A associated with -$0.10 of long-run revenue, signaling efficiency improvements are needed there. The forecasting model is linear and shows solid accuracy, with 2.4% MAPE and a holdout test error of 0.4% (predicted $6.3B vs actual $6.4B), indicating credible near-term guidance. With the FY projection at about $25B, down 1% YoY, the outlook is modestly slow but predictable, placing emphasis on improving SG&A efficiency to protect margins in a subdued growth environment.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Kraft Heinz Co's revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.3B | $6.4B | $5.9B – $6.8B | -3.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | $5.6B – $6.9B | +4.0% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $6.1B | $5.4B – $6.9B | -3.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $6.3B | $5.4B – $7.1B | +0.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $6.1B | $5.1B – $7.0B | -4.4% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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