Kraft Heinz Co KHC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarterly revenue is about $6.35 billion, with a full-year forecast of roughly $25.0 billion, representing a -1.0% year-over-year change. Revenue appears to be driven by core product sales, but SG&A spending shows a negative long-run ROI, with each $1 of SG&A associated with -$0.10 of long-run revenue, signaling efficiency improvements are needed there. The forecasting model is linear and shows solid accuracy, with 2.4% MAPE and a holdout test error of 0.4% (predicted $6.3B vs actual $6.4B), indicating credible near-term guidance. With the FY projection at about $25B, down 1% YoY, the outlook is modestly slow but predictable, placing emphasis on improving SG&A efficiency to protect margins in a subdued growth environment.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Kraft Heinz Co's revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows.

Next FY Revenue
$24.7B
-1.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$-0.10 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.3B vs the actual $6.4B — an error of 0.4%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note: Kraft Heinz Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

KHC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $6.3B $6.4B $5.9B – $6.8B -3.7% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $6.2B $5.6B – $6.9B +4.0%
Q2 2026 $6.1B $5.4B – $6.9B -3.4%
Q3 2026 $6.3B $5.4B – $7.1B +0.3%
Q4 2026 $6.1B $5.1B – $7.0B -4.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

KHC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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