What is KIM's forecasted revenue?

Kimco Realty Corporation is forecasted to generate $1.79B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -18.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the KIM revenue forecast model?

The model has 164.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.3B versus the actual $0.6B.

Kimco Realty Corporation KIM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Kimco Realty Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $551M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $1.8B across the next four quarters (-18.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 40.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$1.79B

-18.1% YoY

G&A Elasticity

8.28x

Training Fit

164.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $330.1M vs the actual $550.8M — an error of 40.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Kimco Realty Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($551M) came in 40% above the spending-based forecast ($330M). This suggests that Kimco Realty Corporation's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$330.1M	$550.8M	$10.5M–$10.37B	-37.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$168.5M		$2.6M–$10.72B	-68.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$661.2M		$14.9M–$29.25B	+21.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$703.8M		$11.7M–$42.16B	+26.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$258.4M		$2.7M–$24.79B	-53.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Kimco Realty Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.7426	-25.7%	-25.7% below trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.3034	+30.3%	+30.3% above trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.1641	+16.4%	+16.4% above trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.6389	-36.1%	-36.1% below trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 6.8471x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -40.1%.

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