What is KMI's forecasted revenue?

Kinder Morgan, Inc. is forecasted to generate $16.8B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the KMI revenue forecast model?

The model has 8.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.3B versus the actual $4.1B.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $16.8B across the next four quarters (+3.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$16.8B

+3.2% YoY

G&A Elasticity

0.94x

Training Fit

8.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.25B vs the actual $4.10B — an error of 3.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Kinder Morgan, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$4.25B	$4.10B	$3.30B–$5.48B	+17.9%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$4.28B		$2.99B–$6.13B	+14.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$4.20B		$2.70B–$6.52B	+4.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$4.18B		$2.52B–$6.96B	-6.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.15B		$2.35B–$7.33B	+1.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0159	+1.6%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.914	-8.6%	-8.6% below trend	15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0061	+0.6%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0428	+4.3%	+4.3% above trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -1.0649x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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