Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.3B, a -0.4% year-over-year change, based on 56 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.10x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.18x). The ARDL model has 6.0% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.0% MAPE), suggesting Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.10x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.10% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.18x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$1.34B
-0.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.10x
SG&A Elasticity
1.18x
Model Accuracy
6.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $328B vs the actual $345B — an error of 5.0%.

Revenue Forecast

KTOS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $328B $345B $285B – $377B +15.8% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $323B $265B – $393B +6.8%
Q2 2026 $331B $260B – $421B -5.8%
Q3 2026 $341B $258B – $450B -1.9%
Q4 2026 $347B $254B – $473B +0.5%

How Spending Drives Revenue

KTOS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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