Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.3B, a -0.4% year-over-year change, based on 56 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.10x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.18x). The ARDL model has 6.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.0% MAPE), suggesting Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.10x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.10% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.18x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $328B | $345B | $285B – $377B | +15.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $323B | $265B – $393B | +6.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $331B | $260B – $421B | -5.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $341B | $258B – $450B | -1.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $347B | $254B – $473B | +0.5% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch