Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $459M for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $1.5B across the next four quarters (-4.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 21.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$1.46B
-4.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$7.43 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$5.31 per $1
Training Fit
7.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $358.4M vs the actual $458.8M — an error of 21.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($459M) came in 22% above the spending-based forecast ($358M). This suggests that Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

KTOS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $358.4M $458.8M $283.2M–$453.6M +2.0% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-28		 $388.2M $302.3M–$498.6M +11.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-28		 $376.2M $286.5M–$494.1M +9.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $323.1M $235.6M–$443.3M -12.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-28		 $370.5M $268.7M–$510.9M -19.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9519 -4.8% -4.8% below trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0016 +0.2% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.048 +4.8% +4.8% above trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0415 +4.1% +4.1% above trend 14

Spending and Revenue

KTOS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 58 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -1.7214x • R&D elasticity: 0.1121x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -21.9%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 58 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.