Lennar Corp /New/ LEN
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Lennar Corp /New/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $38B, a +11.4% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.08x). The ARDL model has 9.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.0% MAPE, the model captures Lennar Corp /New/'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.08x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$38.1B
+11.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.08x
Model Accuracy
9.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.8B vs the actual $9.4B — an error of 16.4%.
Note:
Lennar Corp /New/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($9.4B) came in 16% above the spending-based forecast ($7.8B). This suggests that Lennar Corp /New/'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $7.8B | $9.4B | $6.2B – $9.9B | -21.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $9.4B | $6.8B – $13B | +23.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $9.7B | $6.5B – $14B | +15.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $9.0B | $5.7B – $14B | +2.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $10.0B | $5.9B – $17B | +6.3% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch