What is LEN's forecasted revenue?

Lennar Corp /New/ is forecasted to generate $34.0B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +6.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the LEN revenue forecast model?

The model has 9.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.8B versus the actual $8.0B.

Lennar Corp /New/ LEN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 15 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Lennar Corp /New/'s latest quarterly revenue is $8.0B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $34.0B across the next four quarters (+6.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 21.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$34.0B

+6.5% YoY

G&A Elasticity

0.01x

Training Fit

9.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $9.79B vs the actual $8.05B — an error of 21.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Lennar Corp /New/ does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($8.0B) came in 22% below the spending-based forecast ($9.8B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-08-31	$9.79B	$8.05B	$7.79B–$12.29B	+11.1%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-11-30	$7.98B		$5.78B–$11.02B	-14.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-28	$8.46B		$5.70B–$12.55B	+27.8%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-05-31	$7.78B		$4.93B–$12.28B	-2.0%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-08-31	$9.82B		$5.90B–$16.36B	+22.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lennar Corp /New/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Dec–Feb)	0.8323	-16.8%	-16.8% below trend	3
FQ2 (Mar–May)	0.9523	-4.8%	-4.8% below trend	4
FQ3 (Jun–Aug)	1.0741	+7.4%	+7.4% above trend	3
FQ4 (Sep–Nov)	1.1688	+16.9%	+16.9% above trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 15 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.0048x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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