What is LH's forecasted revenue?

Labcorp Holdings Inc. is forecasted to generate $12.4B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -13.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the LH revenue forecast model?

The model has 10.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.3B versus the actual $3.7B.

Labcorp Holdings Inc. LH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Labcorp Holdings Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.4B across the next four quarters (-13.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.4B

-13.3% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.33x

Training Fit

10.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.35B vs the actual $3.73B — an error of 10.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Labcorp Holdings Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.35B	$3.73B	$2.03B–$5.51B	-5.1%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.14B		$1.88B–$5.26B	-11.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.03B		$1.78B–$5.16B	-13.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.09B		$1.79B–$5.32B	-12.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.18B		$1.83B–$5.54B	-14.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Labcorp Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0144	+1.4%	In line with trend	18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9609	-3.9%	-3.9% below trend	18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9612	-3.9%	-3.9% below trend	18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9461	-5.4%	-5.4% below trend	18

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1852x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -10.3%.

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