Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.0B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $7.4B across the next four quarters (+145.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$7.41B
+145.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$30.44 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$5.48 per $1
Training Fit
5.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $965.7M vs the actual $1.01B — an error of 4.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

LITE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $965.7M $1.01B $752.8M–$1.24B +100.9% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-27		 $1.23B $908.0M–$1.66B +129.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-27		 $1.67B $1.16B–$2.41B +150.6%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $2.03B $1.34B–$3.08B +150.8%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $2.48B $1.53B–$4.04B +146.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 1.041 +4.1% +4.1% above trend 13
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 1.0149 +1.5% In line with trend 13
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9779 -2.2% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 0.974 -2.6% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

LITE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 52 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6199x • R&D elasticity: 0.0499x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 52 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.