Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 16 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Lockheed Martin Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $46B, a +0.7% year-over-year change, based on 16 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($0.70 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Lockheed Martin Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.70 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$45.7B
+0.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.70 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $12B vs the actual $12B — an error of 4.6%.
Note:
Lockheed Martin Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2013 | $12B | $12B | $11B – $13B | -0.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2014 | $12B | $11B – $12B | +4.0% | ||
| Q2 2014 | $11B | $10B – $12B | -1.7% | ||
| Q3 2014 | $11B | $10.0B – $13B | -0.4% | ||
| Q4 2014 | $12B | $10B – $13B | +0.9% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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