What is LNG's forecasted revenue?

Cheniere Energy, Inc. is forecasted to generate $18.9B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -14.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the LNG revenue forecast model?

The model has 16.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $5.9B versus the actual $5.7B.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 44 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $18.9B across the next four quarters (-14.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$18.9B

-14.0% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.69x

Training Fit

16.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.86B vs the actual $5.68B — an error of 3.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Cheniere Energy, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$5.86B	$5.68B	$3.90B–$8.82B	+30.1%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$4.03B		$2.26B–$7.18B	-6.1%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$4.52B		$2.23B–$9.17B	-15.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$5.38B		$2.38B–$12.17B	-18.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.92B		$1.98B–$12.25B	-13.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0018	+0.2%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9942	-0.6%	In line with trend	10
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.8925	-10.7%	-10.7% below trend	10
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0456	+4.6%	+4.6% above trend	10

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 44 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1798x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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