Southwest Airlines Co LUV
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Southwest Airlines Co has a forecasted full-year revenue of $27B, a -4.7% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.19 per $1). The ARDL model has 10.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 10.5% MAPE, the model captures Southwest Airlines Co's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.19 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$26.7B
-4.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.19 per $1
Model Accuracy
10.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.7B vs the actual $7.4B — an error of 9.6%.
Note:
Southwest Airlines Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.7B | $7.4B | $5.6B – $7.8B | -2.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $6.7B | $5.2B – $8.3B | +4.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $6.7B | $4.8B – $8.6B | -8.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $6.7B | $4.5B – $8.9B | -4.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $6.7B | $4.2B – $9.1B | -10.3% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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