Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. MAA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarterly revenue stood at $556M, with SG&A spending showing an elasticity of 0.73 (a 1% SG&A increase yields a 0.73% revenue rise), signaling a positive but moderate ROI on operating expenditures. The model uses a log-log specification and reports 4.5% MAPE, with holdout accuracy of 1.1% (actual $556M vs predicted $549M), underscoring forecast credibility. The full-year revenue forecast is $2,077M, down 6.0% year over year, indicating near-term top-line pressure. With 48 quarters of history, the framework provides a robust planning baseline, and the outlook suggests revenue can be supported by disciplined SG&A investment and cost management despite macro headwinds.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.5% MAPE), suggesting Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.73x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$2.08B
-6.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.73x
Model Accuracy
4.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $549B vs the actual $556B — an error of 1.1%.
Note: Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

MAA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $549B $556B $459B – $657B -0.1% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $539B $418B – $695B -1.9%
Q3 2026 $526B $386B – $718B -4.3%
Q4 2026 $513B $358B – $734B -7.5%
Q1 2027 $499B $334B – $746B -10.1%

How Spending Drives Revenue

MAA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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