What is MAA's forecasted revenue?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. is forecasted to generate $2.17B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -2.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MAA revenue forecast model?

The model has 0.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.5B versus the actual $0.6B.

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. MAA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 32 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $554M for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $2.2B across the next four quarters (-2.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.17B

-2.2% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$36.86 per $1

Training Fit

0.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $549.1M vs the actual $553.7M — an error of 0.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-03-31	$549.1M	$553.7M	$542.1M–$556.1M	-0.0%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$546.6M		$536.8M–$556.5M	-0.6%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$546.3M		$534.2M–$558.4M	-1.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$539.5M		$525.5M–$553.4M	-2.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$532.9M		$517.3M–$548.5M	-3.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9985	-0.1%	In line with trend	6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9997	-0.0%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.002	+0.2%	In line with trend	7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0002	+0.0%	In line with trend	7

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 32 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.0001x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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