Marriott International Inc /Md/ MAR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Marriott International Inc /Md/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $24B, a -8.3% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.57x). The ARDL model has 10.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 10.3% MAPE, the model captures Marriott International Inc /Md/'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.57x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$24.0B
-8.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.57x
Model Accuracy
10.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.4B vs the actual $6.7B — an error of 4.7%.
Note:
Marriott International Inc /Md/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.4B | $6.7B | $4.6B – $8.8B | -0.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | $3.9B – $9.7B | -1.3% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $6.1B | $3.5B – $11B | -10.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.9B | $3.1B – $11B | -8.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.8B | $2.9B – $12B | -12.7% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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