What is MAR's forecasted revenue?

Marriott International Inc /Md/ is forecasted to generate $24.9B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -7.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MAR revenue forecast model?

The model has 10.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $6.6B versus the actual $7.1B.

Marriott International Inc /Md/ MAR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Marriott International Inc /Md/'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $24.9B across the next four quarters (-7.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$24.9B

-7.6% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$2.89 per $1

Training Fit

10.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.57B vs the actual $7.07B — an error of 7.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Marriott International Inc /Md/ does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$6.57B	$7.07B	$5.55B–$7.59B	-2.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$6.50B		$5.06B–$7.93B	+0.2%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$6.06B		$4.30B–$7.82B	-9.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$6.26B		$4.23B–$8.29B	-5.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$6.05B		$3.78B–$8.32B	-14.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Marriott International Inc /Md/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.973	-2.7%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0231	+2.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9899	-1.0%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0623	+6.2%	+6.2% above trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.4957x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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