Mongodb, Inc. MDB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven primarily by R&D investments, with the model estimating $4.72 of long-run revenue generated per $1 of R&D spending, followed by SG&A at $2.07 per $1. The linear model, trained on 37 quarters of data, delivers solid predictive accuracy (2.7% MAPE) with a holdout test error of about 2.0% (predicted $681M vs actual $695M). Quarterly revenue reached $695M, aligning with the ROI-driven spending trajectory and supporting the efficiency of the current mix. The FY revenue forecast is $2.84B, up 15.3% year over year, signaling a healthy growth outlook under the observed ROI dynamics.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Mongodb, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $4.72 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.07 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$2.84B
+15.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$4.72 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.07 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $681B vs the actual $695B — an error of 2.0%.

Revenue Forecast

MDB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 2026 $681B $695B $664B – $698B +24.2% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $687B $663B – $710B +25.1%
Q3 2026 $694B $665B – $723B +17.3%
Q4 2026 $716B $682B – $750B +14.0%
Q1 2027 $744B $706B – $781B +7.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

MDB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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