Mongodb, Inc. MDB
Revenue Intelligence Report • 39 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-09-02 • Data through 2026-07-31 • Sources checked 2026-10-14
MongoDB reported $771.8M of Q2 FY27 revenue, up 30% year over year. The frozen March model was nearly exact for Q1, then missed Q2 by $77.8M: the result landed 5.2 standard deviations above the model point forecast and outside its published 95% interval. Management now guides Q3 to $756M–$761M and FY27 to $2.99B–$3.03B. A transparent 10-quarter log-ratio guidance calibration produces a $797.3M Q3 point forecast with a $769.3M–$826.3M 95% prediction interval, but the small sample and recent acceleration make that uncertainty at least as important as the point estimate.
Post-Q2 FY27 forecast review
Q2 was an extreme upside outlier; the forward forecast now shows vintages, signed errors, and explicit prediction intervals.
The March forecast tracked Q1 within $1.0M, but Q2 exceeded the point forecast by $77.8M and the upper 95% bound by $48.7M. Rather than rewrite the old model, this update preserves that miss and builds the current Q3 distribution from official guidance and MongoDB's observed percentage guidance-error history.
Investment Thesis
MongoDB's Q2 acceleration was broad enough—Atlas grew about 29% and Enterprise Advanced and other revenue about 36%—to invalidate the old model's near-term level forecast. That is positive evidence about current demand, but it also signals a regime change and wider forecast risk. The useful investor question is now whether the upside surprise persists while the 74% GAAP gross margin and strong cash generation hold, not whether historical spending coefficients can be read causally.
Revenue Forecast
Frozen Forecast Vintages
These values are the forecasts that existed before each result. They are not refitted estimates.
| Quarter | Vintage | Forecast | 95% model PI | Actual | Signed error | Surprise | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 | 2026-03-15 | $686.6M | $662.8M–$710.4M | $687.6M | +$1.0M +0.15% of actual |
+0.1σ | Typical / central outcome |
| Q2 FY27 | 2026-03-15 | $693.9M | $664.8M–$723.1M | $771.8M | +$77.8M +10.09% of actual |
+5.2σ | Extreme upside outlier |
Current Forward Distribution
| Quarter | Current point | 80% PI | 95% PI / range | Guidance / implied range | Prior model | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY27 Guidance-calibrated Student-t predictive distribution |
$797.3M | $780.0M–$814.9M | $769.3M–$826.3M | $756.0M–$761.0M | $716.0M $682.4M–$749.6M |
+$81.3M |
| Q4 FY27 Residual implied by FY27 and Q3 guidance; not a PI |
$792.1M | — | $769.6M–$814.6M | $769.6M–$814.6M | $743.6M $706.0M–$781.2M |
+$48.5M |
Guidance Calibration History
Across the previous 10 quarters, actual revenue exceeded the midpoint of initial company guidance every time. On the log scale, the geometric-average beat was 5.1% with a 1.5 percentage-point sample standard deviation. This is a small, company-specific calibration sample—not a universal law.
| Quarter | Company range | Actual | Actual − midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $436.0M–$440.0M | $450.6M | +$12.6M +2.9% |
| Q2 FY25 | $460.0M–$464.0M | $478.1M | +$16.1M +3.5% |
| Q3 FY25 | $493.0M–$497.0M | $529.4M | +$34.4M +6.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | $515.0M–$519.0M | $548.4M | +$31.4M +6.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $524.0M–$529.0M | $549.0M | +$22.5M +4.3% |
| Q2 FY26 | $548.0M–$553.0M | $591.4M | +$40.9M +7.4% |
| Q3 FY26 | $587.0M–$592.0M | $628.3M | +$38.8M +6.6% |
| Q4 FY26 | $665.0M–$670.0M | $695.1M | +$27.6M +4.1% |
| Q1 FY27 | $659.0M–$664.0M | $687.6M | +$26.1M +3.9% |
| Q2 FY27 | $729.0M–$734.0M | $771.8M | +$40.3M +5.5% |
Forecast Error Evolution
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