Mongodb, Inc.: possible revenue paths
Latest verified revenue: $771.77M for the quarter ended 2026-07-31. Reported source.
Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. Sources were refreshed for this model run on 2026-11-04; the cutoff above identifies the latest verified revenue observation included in the fit. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.
PyMC seasonal AR(1) quarterly log-revenue growth with Student-t shocks; posterior predictive paths include parameter uncertainty and new shocks at every horizon.
Each line is one possible future revenue path. The 80% and 95% intervals are pointwise model probabilities, not simultaneous coverage for the whole path. The median is not an expected dollar mean. Open full-size chart.
| Quarter ending | Predictive median | 80% predictive interval | 95% predictive interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | $869.66M | $821.99M–$918.35M | $788.94M–$951.56M |
| 2027-01-31 | $974.51M | $880.69M–$1.079B | $823.52M–$1.158B |
| 2027-04-30 | $1.015B | $884.84M–$1.173B | $800.86M–$1.300B |
| 2027-07-31 | $1.118B | $940.11M–$1.339B | $834.55M–$1.519B |
Future period-end dates are approximate: month-end issuers retain month-end dates; weekly issuers advance by 13 weeks. Future 53-week adjustments are not known.
Historical forecast checks
Each historical cutoff refits the model using only earlier observations. Across the available outcomes, the 80% intervals covered 12/16 and the 95% intervals covered 12/16. Small samples and overlapping outcomes do not establish nominal coverage; covering every outcome can indicate overly wide intervals.
| Horizon | Cases | Bayesian median MAPE | Last reported revenue MAPE | Same quarter last year MAPE | 80% covered | 95% covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 quarter | 4 | 5.02% | 6.66% | 22.22% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| 2 quarters | 4 | 10.17% | 12.79% | 21.23% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| 3 quarters | 4 | 16.53% | 12.60% | 19.71% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| 4 quarters | 4 | 16.24% | 20.56% | 20.56% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
All point-forecast errors use the same historical cases. A simple baseline may have lower error than the Bayesian median; this rollout does not establish that the Bayesian model is superior for every company.
Up to four historical cutoffs spaced four quarters apart, with at least 16 training quarters; full four-quarter outcomes required. Fixed specification, no winner selection.
These are retrospective checks using latest-restated data, not forecasts archived before their outcomes. Results from DDOG or another company are not transferred to this company.
Sampling diagnostics and limitations
Maximum R-hat 1.002 · minimum bulk ESS 3104 · minimum tail ESS 1554 · divergent transitions 0. The required sampling checks passed. These diagnose computation, not predictive calibration.
Fixed priors
mu is long-run quarterly log growth; phi is growth persistence; sigma is the shock scale; season gives quarterly effects; shock_df controls tail thickness.
| Parameter | Prior / fixed assumption |
|---|---|
| mu | Normal(0,0.10) |
| phi | Normal(0,0.5) truncated to [-0.98,0.98] |
| sigma | HalfNormal(0.10) |
| season | 4 Normal(0,0.15), centered to sum zero |
| shock_df | 5 |
Future regime changes and uncertainty over alternative model structures remain outside these intervals. The model should be scored on subsequent releases, and its forecast vintage preserved.
- Revenue-history baseline; does not identify customer-level discounts, acquisitions or future structural breaks.
- Intervals are pointwise, conditional on this model and priors, not guaranteed coverage or simultaneous path bounds.
- Latest-restated historical data; retrospective tests are not archived real-time forecasts. Small test samples cannot validate nominal coverage.
- Student-t log shocks can make dollar means undefined; point forecasts are medians.
- Sources were freshly acquired for this run. Each issuer has its own latest reported period; preliminary ranges are not treated as exact actual revenue.
Management guidance versus reported revenue
Earliest located quarterly guidance among sampled SEC earnings releases; earlier/revised guidance and call-only statements may be missing. Annual and segment-only outlooks excluded.
Management ranges are stated targets, not probability intervals. The revenue model is fitted independently; verified guidance is superimposed for comparison. Historical bias uses the earliest located guidance for each quarter: (guidance midpoint − actual revenue) / actual revenue. Positive values mean guidance above actual results; negative values mean guidance below actual results. This describes outcomes, not management intent.
2 matched quarters · mean guidance bias -4.51% · mean absolute error 4.51%. Actual revenue fell inside 0.0% of 2 published ranges.
This is a descriptive sample, not evidence of a permanent management bias or a calibrated probability range. Call-only guidance and earlier revisions may be missing; guidance and results can reflect different business assumptions.
Guidance vintages and actual results
| Issued / filed | Target quarter | Management guidance | Actual revenue | Bias | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-04-30 | $659.00M–$664.00M | $687.62M | -3.80% | Company release |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-31 | $729.00M–$734.00M | $771.77M | -5.22% | Company release |
All located quarterly guidance announcements
Each announcement retains its original date and amounts. Later revisions remain separate; only the earliest located announcement for each target enters the bias average. An initial forecast may predate this research sample.
| Issued / filed | Target quarter | Guidance | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-04-30 | $659.00M–$664.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-07-31 | $729.00M–$734.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
| 2026-09-01 | 2026-10-31 | $756.00M–$761.00M | Earliest located | Company release |
Preserved Bayesian forecast vintage
Computed 2026-11-04 using revenue through 2026-07-31. These original numbers are retained unchanged to allow subsequent scoring; they were not refitted with the new results. Forecasts computed after a target quarter ended are retrospective estimates, not pre-release predictions.
Original predictive medians and intervals
| Quarter ending | Original median | Original 80% interval | Original 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | $869.66M | $821.99M–$918.35M | $788.94M–$951.56M |
| 2027-01-31 | $974.51M | $880.69M–$1.079B | $823.52M–$1.158B |
| 2027-04-30 | $1.015B | $884.84M–$1.173B | $800.86M–$1.300B |
| 2027-07-31 | $1.118B | $940.11M–$1.339B | $834.55M–$1.519B |
The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.
Mongodb, Inc. MDB
Revenue Intelligence Report • 39 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-09-02 • Data through 2026-07-31 • Sources checked 2026-10-14
Earlier summary (2026-09-02): MongoDB reported $771.8M of Q2 FY27 revenue, up 30% year over year. The frozen March model was nearly exact for Q1, then missed Q2 by $77.8M: the result landed 5.2 standard deviations above the model point forecast and outside its published 95% interval. Management now guides Q3 to $756M–$761M and FY27 to $2.99B–$3.03B. A transparent 10-quarter log-ratio guidance calibration produces a $797.3M Q3 point forecast with a $769.3M–$826.3M 95% prediction interval, but the small sample and recent acceleration make that uncertainty at least as important as the point estimate.
Post-Q2 FY27 forecast review
Q2 was an extreme upside outlier; the forward forecast now shows vintages, signed errors, and explicit prediction intervals.
The March forecast tracked Q1 within $1.0M, but Q2 exceeded the point forecast by $77.8M and the upper 95% bound by $48.7M. Rather than rewrite the old model, this update preserves that miss and builds the current Q3 distribution from official guidance and MongoDB's observed percentage guidance-error history.
Investment Thesis
MongoDB's Q2 acceleration was broad enough—Atlas grew about 29% and Enterprise Advanced and other revenue about 36%—to invalidate the old model's near-term level forecast. That is positive evidence about current demand, but it also signals a regime change and wider forecast risk. The useful investor question is now whether the upside surprise persists while the 74% GAAP gross margin and strong cash generation hold, not whether historical spending coefficients can be read causally.
Revenue Forecast
Frozen Forecast Vintages
These values are the forecasts that existed before each result. They are not refitted estimates.
| Quarter | Vintage | Forecast | 95% model PI | Actual | Signed error | Surprise | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 | 2026-03-15 | $686.6M | $662.8M–$710.4M | $687.6M | +$1.0M +0.15% of actual |
+0.1σ | Typical / central outcome |
| Q2 FY27 | 2026-03-15 | $693.9M | $664.8M–$723.1M | $771.8M | +$77.8M +10.09% of actual |
+5.2σ | Extreme upside outlier |
Current Forward Distribution
| Quarter | Current point | 80% PI | 95% PI / range | Guidance / implied range | Prior model | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY27 Guidance-calibrated Student-t predictive distribution |
$797.3M | $780.0M–$814.9M | $769.3M–$826.3M | $756.0M–$761.0M | $716.0M $682.4M–$749.6M |
+$81.3M |
| Q4 FY27 Residual implied by FY27 and Q3 guidance; not a PI |
$792.1M | — | $769.6M–$814.6M | $769.6M–$814.6M | $743.6M $706.0M–$781.2M |
+$48.5M |
Guidance Calibration History
Across the previous 10 quarters, actual revenue exceeded the midpoint of initial company guidance every time. On the log scale, the geometric-average beat was 5.1% with a 1.5 percentage-point sample standard deviation. This is a small, company-specific calibration sample—not a universal law.
| Quarter | Company range | Actual | Actual − midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $436.0M–$440.0M | $450.6M | +$12.6M +2.9% |
| Q2 FY25 | $460.0M–$464.0M | $478.1M | +$16.1M +3.5% |
| Q3 FY25 | $493.0M–$497.0M | $529.4M | +$34.4M +6.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | $515.0M–$519.0M | $548.4M | +$31.4M +6.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $524.0M–$529.0M | $549.0M | +$22.5M +4.3% |
| Q2 FY26 | $548.0M–$553.0M | $591.4M | +$40.9M +7.4% |
| Q3 FY26 | $587.0M–$592.0M | $628.3M | +$38.8M +6.6% |
| Q4 FY26 | $665.0M–$670.0M | $695.1M | +$27.6M +4.1% |
| Q1 FY27 | $659.0M–$664.0M | $687.6M | +$26.1M +3.9% |
| Q2 FY27 | $729.0M–$734.0M | $771.8M | +$40.3M +5.5% |
Forecast Error Evolution
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