What is MELI's forecasted revenue?

Mercadolibre, Inc. is forecasted to generate $35.0B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +42.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MELI revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $7.0B versus the actual $7.1B.

Mercadolibre, Inc. MELI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mercadolibre, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $35.0B across the next four quarters (+42.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$35.0B

+42.9% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-2.07 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$4.83 per $1

Training Fit

1.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.98B vs the actual $7.05B — an error of 1.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$6.98B	$7.05B	$6.81B–$7.14B	+45.3%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$7.34B		$7.11B–$7.57B	+41.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$8.93B		$8.64B–$9.21B	+45.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$8.72B		$8.39B–$9.05B	+43.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$9.97B		$9.60B–$10.34B	+41.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mercadolibre, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9852	-1.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0023	+0.2%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0049	+0.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9902	-1.0%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7362x • R&D elasticity: -0.4071x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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