Monster Beverage Corp MNST
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Monster Beverage Corp has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.7B, a +5.5% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.2% MAPE), suggesting Monster Beverage Corp's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$8.75B
+5.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.93x
Model Accuracy
3.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.0B vs the actual $2.1B — an error of 7.6%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Monster Beverage Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.0B | $2.1B | $1.8B – $2.1B | +8.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.0B | $1.8B – $2.3B | +10.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | $2.0B – $2.6B | +6.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.3B | $2.0B – $2.7B | +4.3% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.2B | $1.8B – $2.6B | +1.9% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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