What is MPLX's forecasted revenue?

Mplx Lp is forecasted to generate $9.93B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +0.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MPLX revenue forecast model?

The model has 8.2% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.5B versus the actual $2.6B.

Mplx Lp MPLX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mplx Lp's latest quarterly revenue is $2.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.9B across the next four quarters (+0.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$9.93B

+0.6% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.51x

Training Fit

8.2% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.48B vs the actual $2.62B — an error of 5.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Mplx Lp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.48B	$2.62B	$1.84B–$3.33B	+5.1%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.29B		$1.62B–$3.24B	-6.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.63B		$1.80B–$3.84B	+7.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.48B		$1.64B–$3.75B	+5.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.54B		$1.60B–$4.03B	-2.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mplx Lp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0386	+3.9%	+3.9% above trend	13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9845	-1.5%	In line with trend	13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0126	+1.3%	In line with trend	13
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9979	-0.2%	In line with trend	13

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 53 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.5138x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -5.3%.

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