What is MRNA's forecasted revenue?

Moderna, Inc. is forecasted to generate $8.46B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +279.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MRNA revenue forecast model?

The model has 40.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.2B versus the actual $0.1B.

Moderna, Inc. MRNA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Moderna, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $145M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.5B across the next four quarters (+279.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 725.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$8.46B

+279.7% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-1.66x

G&A Elasticity

1.20x

Training Fit

40.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.20B vs the actual $145.0M — an error of 725.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($0.1B) came in 726% below the spending-based forecast ($1.2B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.20B	$145.0M	$491.1M–$2.92B	+743.0%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.73B		$1.06B–$13.16B	+267.4%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.83B		$604.8M–$13.25B	+317.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$912.3M		$153.5M–$5.42B	+134.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$983.9M		$134.2M–$7.22B	+578.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Moderna, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.8786	-12.1%	-12.1% below trend	8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.2045	+20.5%	+20.5% above trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.085	+8.5%	+8.5% above trend	7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0204	+2.0%	In line with trend	7

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 2.9073x • R&D elasticity: -2.6225x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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