What is MRVL's forecasted revenue?

Marvell Technology, Inc is forecasted to generate $13.9B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +46.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MRVL revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.6B versus the actual $2.7B.

Marvell Technology, Inc MRVL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 22 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Marvell Technology, Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $2.7B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $13.9B across the next four quarters (+46.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 30.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$13.9B

+46.6% YoY

R&D Elasticity

3.42x

SG&A Elasticity

-2.87x

Training Fit

2.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $3.58B vs the actual $2.74B — an error of 30.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.7B) came in 31% below the spending-based forecast ($3.6B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$3.58B	$2.74B	$3.41B–$3.76B	+78.5%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$4.18B		$3.90B–$4.48B	+101.5%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$2.83B		$2.60B–$3.09B	+27.7%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-05-01	$2.25B		$2.04B–$2.49B	-6.8%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$4.59B		$4.11B–$5.13B	+67.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Marvell Technology, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	0.9879	-1.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (May–Jul)	1.0127	+1.3%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	0.9812	-1.9%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	1.0119	+1.2%	In line with trend	4

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 22 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4691x • R&D elasticity: -1.4258x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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