What is MSTR's forecasted revenue?

Strategy Inc is forecasted to generate $509.2M in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +2.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MSTR revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $120M versus the actual $122M.

Strategy Inc MSTR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Strategy Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $122M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $509M across the next four quarters (+2.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$509.2M

+2.2% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.18x

SG&A Elasticity

0.47x

Training Fit

3.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $119.9M vs the actual $122.4M — an error of 2.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$119.9M	$122.4M	$110.6M–$130.0M	+4.7%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$123.6M		$110.3M–$138.6M	-3.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$129.1M		$112.2M–$148.5M	+5.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$130.8M		$111.3M–$153.8M	+5.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$125.7M		$104.9M–$150.5M	+2.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Strategy Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9709	-2.9%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9877	-1.2%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0174	+1.7%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0113	+1.1%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1665x • R&D elasticity: -0.3581x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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