Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. MTSI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 59 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $342M for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $1.5B across the next four quarters (+29.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 12.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$1.50B
+29.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.04x
SG&A Elasticity
1.01x
Training Fit
18.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $301.0M vs the actual $342.2M — an error of 12.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

MTSI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-03		 $301.0M $342.2M $141.0M–$642.5M +19.4% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-03		 $329.0M $142.6M–$759.1M +26.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-03		 $365.1M $143.5M–$928.5M +34.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-03		 $414.1M $144.4M–$1.19B +43.3%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-03		 $393.9M $125.3M–$1.24B +15.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Macom Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 1.0104 +1.0% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 1.0629 +6.3% +6.3% above trend 15
FQ3 (May–Jul) 1.0505 +5.0% +5.0% above trend 14
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 1.0383 +3.8% +3.8% above trend 14

Spending and Revenue

MTSI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 59 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.8128x • R&D elasticity: -0.2851x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -12.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 59 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.