What is MTZ's forecasted revenue?

Mastec, Inc. is forecasted to generate $17.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +6.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MTZ revenue forecast model?

The model has 8.2% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.8B versus the actual $4.4B.

Mastec, Inc. MTZ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mastec, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $17.1B across the next four quarters (+6.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$17.1B

+6.2% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$16.25 per $1

Training Fit

8.2% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.79B vs the actual $4.37B — an error of 13.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Mastec, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.79B	$4.37B	$3.43B–$4.16B	+7.0%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$4.16B		$3.64B–$4.68B	+4.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$4.35B		$3.72B–$4.99B	+10.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$4.41B		$3.67B–$5.14B	+15.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.18B		$3.36B–$5.00B	-4.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mastec, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9256	-7.4%	-7.4% below trend	15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0435	+4.3%	+4.3% above trend	15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0046	+0.5%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9845	-1.6%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.2924x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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