What is NDAQ's forecasted revenue?

Nasdaq, Inc. is forecasted to generate $9.15B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +4.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NDAQ revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.2B versus the actual $2.5B.

Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Nasdaq, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.1B across the next four quarters (+4.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 14.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$9.15B

+4.5% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$97.28 per $1

Training Fit

5.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.18B vs the actual $2.53B — an error of 14.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Nasdaq, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.18B	$2.53B	$2.00B–$2.35B	+3.5%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.20B		$1.96B–$2.45B	+12.6%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.24B		$1.94B–$2.55B	+5.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.32B		$1.97B–$2.67B	+8.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.38B		$1.99B–$2.78B	-5.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nasdaq, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0469	+4.7%	+4.7% above trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9734	-2.7%	In line with trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9546	-4.5%	-4.5% below trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.032	+3.2%	+3.2% above trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.0535x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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