What is NEM's forecasted revenue?

Newmont Corporation is forecasted to generate $30.7B in FY revenue, representing +35.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NEM revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $7.9B versus the actual $6.8B.

Newmont Corporation NEM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Newmont Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $31B, a +35.5% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 2.57x). The ARDL model has 5.4% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.4% MAPE), suggesting Newmont Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.41x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 2.57x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$30.7B

+35.5% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.41x

SG&A Elasticity

2.57x

Model Accuracy

5.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.9B vs the actual $6.8B — an error of 15.2%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($6.8B) came in 15% below the spending-based forecast ($7.9B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$7.9B	$6.8B	$6.9B – $8.9B	+39.0%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$7.3B		$6.2B – $8.7B	+46.6%
Q3 2026	$7.6B		$6.1B – $9.4B	+42.5%
Q4 2026	$7.4B		$5.8B – $9.5B	+34.3%
Q1 2027	$8.4B		$6.4B – $11B	+22.8%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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