What is NEM's forecasted revenue?

Newmont Corporation is forecasted to generate $19.8B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -23.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NEM revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $6.0B versus the actual $6.1B.

Newmont Corporation NEM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Newmont Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $6.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $19.8B across the next four quarters (-23.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$19.8B

-23.0% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.43x

G&A Elasticity

2.73x

Training Fit

5.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.04B vs the actual $6.12B — an error of 1.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$6.04B	$6.12B	$5.29B–$6.89B	+13.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$5.47B		$4.54B–$6.59B	-1.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$5.53B		$4.40B–$6.95B	-18.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$4.77B		$3.66B–$6.21B	-34.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.06B		$3.03B–$5.46B	-33.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Newmont Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9641	-3.6%	-3.6% below trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.992	-0.8%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9988	-0.1%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0223	+2.2%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.9861x • R&D elasticity: -0.0026x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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