What is NOC's forecasted revenue?

Northrop Grumman Corp /De/ is forecasted to generate $43.5B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +1.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NOC revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $11B versus the actual $11B.

Northrop Grumman Corp /De/ NOC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Northrop Grumman Corp /De/'s latest quarterly revenue is $10.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $43.5B across the next four quarters (+1.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$43.5B

+1.4% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$10.07 per $1

Training Fit

4.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $10.58B vs the actual $10.88B — an error of 2.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Northrop Grumman Corp /De/ does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$10.58B	$10.88B	$9.06B–$12.34B	+2.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$10.84B		$9.20B–$12.77B	+4.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$10.69B		$8.94B–$12.79B	-8.7%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$11.12B		$9.19B–$13.47B	+12.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$10.82B		$8.78B–$13.34B	-0.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Northrop Grumman Corp /De/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0039	+0.4%	In line with trend	18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.017	+1.7%	In line with trend	18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.011	+1.1%	In line with trend	18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9836	-1.6%	In line with trend	18

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.5017x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -2.8%.

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