Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Norfolk Southern Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a -4.4% year-over-year change, based on 69 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.3% MAPE), suggesting Norfolk Southern Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$11.6B
-4.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.20x
Model Accuracy
3.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.0B — an error of 1.1%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Norfolk Southern Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $3.0B | $2.7B – $3.3B | -0.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.0B | $2.6B – $3.4B | -0.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | $2.5B – $3.4B | -6.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.9B | $2.4B – $3.5B | -7.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.9B | $2.3B – $3.6B | -3.8% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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