What is NTRA's forecasted revenue?

Natera, inc. is forecasted to generate $3.47B in FY revenue, representing +50.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NTRA revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.7B versus the actual $0.7B.

Natera, inc. NTRA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 46 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Natera, inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.5B, a +50.6% year-over-year change, based on 46 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.93x). The ARDL model has 5.8% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.8% MAPE), suggesting Natera, inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.15x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.93x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$3.47B

+50.6% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.15x

SG&A Elasticity

0.93x

Model Accuracy

5.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.7B vs the actual $0.7B — an error of 1.1%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$0.7B	$0.7B	$0.6B – $0.8B	+38.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$0.7B		$0.6B – $0.9B	+45.7%
Q3 2026	$0.8B		$0.6B – $1.1B	+49.1%
Q4 2026	$0.9B		$0.7B – $1.2B	+53.6%
Q1 2027	$1.0B		$0.7B – $1.4B	+53.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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